التكامل الاقتصادي
Volume 13, Numéro 3, Pages 297-319
2025-09-30
The Effectiveness Of Monetary And Exchange Rate Policies In Algeria Under Oil Shocks: An Ardl Analysis (1990–2023)
Authors : Mousli Abdenadir .
Abstract
This study aims to assess the effectiveness of monetary and exchange rate policies in Algeria in responding to oil shocks, within a context of strong dependence on hydrocarbons. Covering the period from 1990 to 2023, and using the ARDL model, the study analyzes the short and long-term relationships between the dinar exchange rate and a set of macroeconomic variables: money supply, interest rate, credit to the economy, foreign exchange reserves, and oil prices. The findings show that traditional monetary instruments have a limited impact on the exchange rate due to structural rigidities in the Algerian economy. Conversely, oil prices exert a significant influence, highlighting the country’s persistent external vulnerability. Credit to the economy plays a stabilizing role in the medium term. The study concludes that the effectiveness of these policies is constrained by weak macroeconomic coordination and the dominance of the rentier model. It recommends ambitious structural reforms focused on economic diversification and strengthening the autonomy of the central bank.
Keywords
Exchange rate ; Monetary policy ; External shocks ; Algerian economy ; ARDL Model
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