مجلة البشائر الاقتصادية
Volume 10, Numéro 3, Pages 610-628
2024-12-14

Modeling Industrial Production Of Pasteurized Milk In Algeria: Insights From The Box-jenkins



Authors : Mezouaghi Djilali . Lakehal Mohamed .

Abstract

This study aims to estimate a model for forecasting the annual industrial production of pasteurized milk in Algeria using the Box-Jenkins methodology, applied to data from 1980 to 2022. The analysis concluded with the estimation of an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, specifically ARIMA (13, 1, 9), demonstrating reasonable accuracy with a MAPE of 21%. The model forecasts that the industrial production of pasteurized milk will increase to approximately 11,955,000 hectoliters by 2028.

Keywords

ARIMA ; Box-Jenkins Methodology ; Forecasting ; Industrial Production ; Pasteurized Milk

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