المحترف
Volume 13, Numéro 1, Pages 347-358
2026-03-24
The Impact Of The Eu’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (cbam) On North African Industrial Exports: A Cge Model Approach
Authors : Saifi Walid . بن سمينة عزيزة .
Abstract
The implementation of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) represents a paradigmatic shift in international trade policy, intertwining climate ambition with commercial strategy. This article investigates the potential economic repercussions of CBAM on North African economies, specifically Algeria, Egypt, and Tunisia, which exhibit a high degree of trade dependence on the EU. Utilizing a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation based on the GTAP-E model, we estimate the impact of a carbon levy ranging from €75 to €100 per ton on key industrial sectors: cement, fertilizers, iron and steel, and aluminum. Our findings suggest a heterogeneous impact across the region; while aggregate welfare losses are moderate (ranging from -0.2% to -0.9% of GDP), sectoral disruptions are profound, particularly for the Egyptian fertilizer industry and the Algerian cement sector. Furthermore, the analysis highlights a significant "administrative non-tariff barrier" effect, where the cost of compliance monitoring may outweigh the tariff itself for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). We argue that without strategic decarbonization and diplomatic engagement to secure revenue recycling, CBAM risks exacerbating the North-South economic divide under the guise of environmental protection. Keywords: , North Africa, CGE Model, International Trade, , Green Supply Chain Management.
Keywords
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) ; Decarbonization
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