مجلة الإقتصاد الجديد
Volume 17, Numéro 2, Pages 35-48
2026-07-01
Measuring Fiscal Space In Mena Economies: A Composite Index And Panel Evidence
Authors : Zhang Juan . Yihuan Lin .
Abstract
Traditional debt-to-GDP ratios often obscure the fiscal capacity of resource-dependent economies. This study constructs a composite Fiscal Space Index for eleven MENA economies over 2000–2022 using principal component analysis. The results show that revenue adequacy, rather than debt alone, is the main dimension separating stronger fiscal positions from weaker ones in the region. The index places GCC oil exporters at the top, while structurally constrained oil-importing economies lag behind. Two-way fixed-effects regressions with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors indicate that oil rents are strongly associated with fiscal space, whereas GDP growth and inflation do not show independent significance. These findings suggest that durable fiscal space in MENA depends less on short-term growth fluctuations than on revenue structure, hydrocarbon dependence, and the development of more resilient non-oil fiscal frameworks.
Keywords
Fiscal Space ; MENA Economies ; Composite Index ; Oil Rents ; Fiscal Sustainability
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