مجلة الباحث الإقتصادي
Volume 14, Numéro 1, Pages 272-286
2026-06-30
An Analytical Study Of Global Inflation Trends During The Period (2020–2025)
Authors : Djaafer Saliha .
Abstract
Over the past few years, the global economy has been subjected to external shocks, starting with the COVID-19 pandemic followed by the Russian-Ukrainian war. These shocks initially led to a decline in prices, followed by a sudden and significant rise in inflation, bringing the global inflation rate to its highest levels since the 1990s. Although it declined in 2024, the year 2025 witnessed some geopolitical risks, beginning with the trade war and then the Zionist aggression against Iran. In light of the uncertainty resulting from these geopolitical risks, global inflation may rise to unexpected levels. This study attempts to analyze the causes and drivers of the rise in global inflation following COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian war, and to propose possible scenarios of the implications of geopolitical risks that may materialize and significantly impact global inflation. The study concludes that negative supply shocks caused by the pandemic, followed by aggregate demand shocks resulting from stimulus policies, led to a widening of supply-demand imbalances, which in turn drove inflation higher. The Russian-Ukrainian war caused a surge in commodity prices and supply disruptions, worsening global inflation. A trade war could raise living costs and disrupt global supply chains. In the event of a renewed war on Iran, this may result in a severe shortage of supplies and record spikes in energy prices, which would further increase global inflation rates.
Keywords
global inflation; COVID-19 pandemic; Russia-Ukraine war; supply chains; trade tensions; war on Iran
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