مجلة الإقتصاد الجديد
Volume 17, Numéro 2, Pages 163-176
2026-07-01

Modeling The Effects Of International Crises And Climate Variability On Food Security In Algeria: An Ardl Approach



Authors : Benchouk Wahiba .

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of international crises and climate fluctuations on food security in Algeria over the period 1990-2024, using wheat import dependence as a proxy indicator. The analysis employs an ARDL model to capture both long-run relationships and short-run dynamics between food security and its key determinants. The main results reveal that rainfall and agricultural productivity are found to significantly decline dependence on wheat imports. Conversely, the impact of oil prices is positive, highlighting the contribution of hydrocarbon incomes towards the financing of food imports in an economic system based on rent. The impact of international crises is also crucial, as it underlines the susceptibility of the Algerian food system to the global disruption. Overall, the research emphasizes the need for integrated policy responses that combine agricultural development, climate adaptation, and reduced dependence on external markets to increase the resiliency of food security in the long term.

Keywords

Food Security ; Wheat Import Dependence ; Climate Variability ; International Crises ; ARDL Model

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