المجلة الجزائرية للأمن والتنمية
Volume 15, Numéro 2, Pages 603-619
2026-07-01
Algeria's Ageing Population Dynamics: 2020–2050 Spectrum Model Projections
Authors : Mohammedi Meriem . Hamza Cherif Ali .
Abstract
This study analyses the dynamics of population ageing in Algeria between 2020 and 2050, based on official demographic data and long-term quantitative projections. The DemProj model within the Spectrum software was used to generate three population scenarios: the baseline trajectory, a conservative scenario, and an accelerated ageing scenario. The results indicate that the proportion of individuals aged 60 and over will steadily increase, reaching approximately 18–20% of the total population by 2050, reflecting a structural demographic transition. This shift is expected to place increasing pressure on social protection systems, particularly pension funding and long-term healthcare services, while also increasing the burden of chronic diseases among older adults. A comparative perspective with other Maghreb countries reveals similar trends, albeit at varying rates. Based on these findings, adopting proactive, evidence-based policies is essential to ensure sustainable social and financial outcomes in the long term. Such policies include gradual reforms of the pension system, expansion of long-term healthcare and social services, and strategies to enhance the active social participation of older adults.
Keywords
population ageing ; Algeria ; demographic projections ; Spectrum model ; social policies ; pension systems ; healthcare
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