مجلة الباحث الإقتصادي
Volume 14, Numéro 1, Pages 306-326
2026-06-30
The Impact Of The Parallel Exchange Market Premium On Foreign Exchange Reserves In Algeria: An Econometric Study For The Period 1977–2024
Authors : Hadid Saida . Recham Kahina .
Abstract
This study aims to investigate the relationship between the parallel exchange rate premium and foreign exchange reserves in Algeria over the period 1977–2024. The analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model within the framework of cointegration analysis using the Bounds Testing approach. The empirical findings reveal a statistically significant and negative long-run impact of the parallel market premium on foreign exchange reserves at the 5% significance level, underscoring the detrimental role of distortions in the informal exchange market in depleting reserve assets. Additionally, the results indicate a significant and positive long-run effect of both international oil prices and the official exchange rate on reserve accumulation. Conversely, no statistically significant relationships were observed in the short run, suggesting the presence of delayed and complex transmission mechanisms, particularly in an economy heavily reliant on the hydrocarbon sector, The study puts forward a set of key recommendations aimed at enhancing external stability and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Chief among these are the gradual acceleration of exchange rate system reform, narrowing the gap in the parallel market, diversifying the economic base by supporting non-oil sectors, and strengthening the effectiveness of relevant institutional and regulatory frameworks.
Keywords
parallel exchange market premium ; foreign exchange reserves ; Oil price ; Official exchange rate
Les articles similaires
بوسالم أحلام
.
عابد يوسف
.
ص 117-132.
Yahia Zeghoudi
.
pages 74-88.
Hadid Saida
.
Recham Kahina
.
pages 224-237.
Khallout Manal
.
Khallout Allaoua
.
pages 644-661.
Bouchentouf Moulay Mostapha
.
pages 158-172.
