المجلة الجزائرية للدراسات الاقتصادية والإدارية
Volume 6, Numéro 1, Pages 18-28
2026-04-30
Geopolitical Dynamics And Commodity Market Volatility: Analyzing The Impact Of Global Conflicts On Gold, Silver, And Energy Prices (2022-2026)
Authors : Silvie Jarennias .
Abstract
This research investigates the intricate relationship between geopolitical instability and the volatility of critical global commodities—gold, silver, and energy—during the period from January 2022 to March 2026. Following the IMRAD (Introduction, Methods, Results, and Discussion) structural framework, the study identifies key transmission mechanisms through which armed conflicts, specifically the Russia-Ukraine war and the 2026 Middle East escalation, influence market prices and broader macroeconomic stability. The results demonstrate that gold achieved unprecedented valuation peaks ($5,318/oz) as a primary safe-haven asset, while energy markets faced systemic supply shocks that pushed Brent crude above $100/bbl. Silver, conversely, exhibited a "dual-nature" volatility, reacting to both safe-haven demand and industrial contraction fears. The discussion evaluates the heightened probability of a global recession, analyzing indicators such as the "Silver Signal," stagflationary pressures, and the erosion of consumer confidence. The article concludes with strategic recommendations for navigating a fragmented and volatile global economic order.
Keywords
Geopolitical Dynamics ; Commodity Market Volatility ; Global Conflicts ; Gold, Silver, and Energy Prices
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