مجلة المنظومة الرياضية
Volume 13, Numéro 1, Pages 767-785
2026-03-01
The Winning Recipe Is Not Universal : A Comparative Analysis Of Victory Between The 2022 Fifa World Cup And 2023 Afcon
Authors : Hadji Abderrahmen .
Abstract
This study compares the tactical determinants of victory in the 2022 FIFA World Cup (WC) and 2023 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON). Using StatsBomb data from 116 matches (WC: n=64; AFCON: n=52), we employed comparative statistical testing and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) to classify match outcomes. Results indicate offensive convergence, with no significant differences in Shot Volume (p=0.761) or Expected Goals (p=0.938). However, structural divergences persist: WC teams exhibited higher Pass Completion volumes (430.27±151.22 vs. 331.46±90.69; p<0.001) and Interceptions (10.47±4.19 vs. 8.05±3.74; p<0.001). Crucially, LDA revealed distinct winning mechanisms: WC victory correlates most strongly with offensive efficiency (Shots) and defensive clearances, while AFCON success is predicted by Shots, Fouls, and Blocks. These findings suggest that while attacking output has harmonized globally, the strategic levers for victory remain context-dependent, reflecting different environmental and competitive constraints
Keywords
Performance Analysis ; performance indicators ; Linear Discriminant Analysis ; FIFA World Cup ; AFCON
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