مجلة الإبداع
Volume 16, Numéro 1, Pages 66-88
2026-01-15
The Implications Of Official And Parallel Exchange Rate Convergence On Foreign Trade In Algeria: An Econometric Analysis (1999–2024).
Authors : Zouiche Walida . Aissa Nadjet .
Abstract
This study seeks to analyze the impact of the persistent disparity between the official and parallel exchange rates on Algeria's foreign trade performance over the period 1999–2024. To address the research problem, a rigorous quantitative approach was employed, utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyze the dynamic relationship between the dual exchange rate differential and the trade balance. The study hypothesizes that a significant and sustained gap between the two rates negatively impacts foreign trade by severely distorting economic agents' incentives. This distortion, in turn, encourages illicit practices such as the under-invoicing of exports and the over-invoicing of imports. The empirical findings suggest that effectively narrowing this differential or fully unifying the exchange rates would foster transparency, mitigate informal market distortions, and positively contribute to improving the trade balance performance and enhancing overall macroeconomic stability. Consequently, the paper recommends adopting a more flexible and market-reflective exchange rate policy, promoting transparent management and unification of the exchange market, and implementing comprehensive structural reforms to bolster economic diversification and effectively combat inflation
Keywords
Official Exchange Rate ; Parallel Exchange Rate ; Foreign Trade ; Exports ; Imports
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