مجلة العلوم الاقتصادية والتسيير والعلوم التجارية
Volume 18, Numéro 2, Pages 464-472
2025-12-31
Sudan's Customs Dollar: A Statistical Analysis Of Its Impact On Food Security And Staple Imports
Authors : Mohammed Akram . حاتم الطيب ادم . محي الدين عبدالمنعم محي الدين . عبدالمنعم حسن المساعد .
Abstract
This study provides a statistical analysis of the impact of Sudan's administratively set customs dollar rate on the import of essential food commodities from 2019 to 2024. Amidst severe economic volatility, the customs dollar was used as a key fiscal tool, rising by over 11,000% and functioning as an implicit tariff. This paper investigates the real-world consequences of this policy on national food security. Using official monthly data from the Sudanese Customs Authority, the analysis employs descriptive statistics, correlation, and simple linear regression to quantify the relationship between the customs rate and the import values of six staple foods. The findings reveal a statistically significant and severe negative impact on core staples. A routine 100 SDG increase in the customs rate is associated with a staggering $6.8 million reduction in monthly wheat imports, with significant decreases also found for cooking oils and lentils. Conversely, no significant relationship was found for sugar, tea, or coffee, indicating the policy's disproportionate effect on the most essential goods. The study concludes that the customs dollar, while a tool for revenue, has been a primary driver of food insecurity in Sudan, creating a critical trilemma for policymakers between fiscal needs, food affordability, and social stability. The paper recommends a more predictable and differentiated rate policy to mitigate the severe hardship imposed on the Sudanese population.
Keywords
Customs Dollar ; Sudan ; Food Security ; Import Demand ; Trade Policy ; Exchange Rate Pass-Through
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