مجلة النمو الاقتصادي والمقاولاتية
Volume 8, Numéro 4, Pages 32-45
2025-12-17

How Do Oil Price Shocks Drive Unemployment Rates In Algeria: An Empirical Analysis Using The Nardl Approach 1980-2023



Authors : Zeddam Ahmed Amine . Hamrit Abdelatif . Yousfi El-housseyn . Ounis Omar .

Abstract

This research paper aims to investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on unemployment rates in Algeria by employing the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, using annual data spanning the period 1980–2023. The findings reveal the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship. Symmetry tests indicate a significant asymmetric impact of oil prices on unemployment in Algeria, with unemployment responding more strongly and sensitively to negative oil price shocks than to positive ones in the long run. In the short run, negative oil price shocks have a significant and inverse effect on unemployment, whereas positive shocks show no significant impact. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) emerges as the most influential factor driving unemployment, displaying a significant inverse relationship in the long term. Meanwhile, inflation has no significant effect on unemployment rates in Algeria, either in the short or long run.

Keywords

Unemployment rate ; oil price shocks ; asymmetric effects ; NARDL model ; long and short run

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