المقريزي للدراسـات الاقتصادية والمـالية
Volume 9, Numéro 2, Pages 229-243
2025-12-01
Economic Growth And State Budget In Algeria: An Econometric Analysis
Authors : Guettoufi Yacine .
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between economic growth and state budget dynamics in Algeria from 2000 to 2023, with particular emphasis on the role of hydrocarbon revenues in shaping fiscal policy and economic performance. Using econometric analysis including Vector Autoregression (VAR) models and Granger causality tests, we investigate the bidirectional relationship between GDP growth, government expenditure, and budget balance. Our findings reveal a strong dependency on oil revenues, with significant implications for fiscal sustainability and economic diversification. The results indicate that while government spending has a positive short-term impact on economic growth, the volatile nature of hydrocarbon revenues creates structural vulnerabilities in Algeria's fiscal framework. We recommend implementing countercyclical fiscal policies and accelerating economic diversification to reduce dependency on oil revenues.
Keywords
Economic growth ; fiscal policy ; Algeria ; hydrocarbon economy ; econometric analysis ; budget sustainability
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