التكامل الاقتصادي
Volume 13, Numéro 2, Pages 325-340
2025-06-30
Using The Box-jenkins Methodology To Forecast Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Energy In Algeria Up To The 2030 Horizon
Authors : Lagoune Salim . Bakouche Lamia .
Abstract
This study aimed to analyze the time series of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from energy in Algeria during the period 1980–2023 and forecast them using the Box-Jenkins methodology. To achieve this objective, a descriptive-analytical approach and an econometric approach were employed, with the assistance of the statistical program EViews-10. The results revealed that the time series under study became stationary at the second difference. The best model among the selected models was identified as ARIMA model (0,2,1), which was used to forecasting future CO₂ emissions for the period 2024–2030. The forecasting results indicated that the expected volume of emissions would range between approximately 351.9064 and 389.9539 million tons during the forecast period. Furthermore, the results showed that CO₂ emissions in Algeria are projected to follow an upward trend during the forecast period (2024–2030), driven by the ongoing increase in investment projects and economic expansion. This, in turn, leads to excessive use of energy resources, resulting in higher levels of toxic emissions, particularly CO₂.
Keywords
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy ; Time Series Analysis ; Box-Jenkins Methodology ; Forecasting ; ARIMA Model
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