Le Manager
Volume 13, Numéro 1, Pages 177-201
2026-06-30
Wheat Production And Food Self-sufficiency In Algeria: An Ardl-based Analysis (1990–2024)
Authors : Dib Amel .
Abstract
Food security remains a major strategic challenge for Algeria due to its high dependence on wheat imports and vulnerability to climatic variability. This study examines the impact of domestic wheat production on food self-sufficiency over the period 1990–2024 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The results show that a 1% increase in local wheat production is associated with a 0.59% rise in the self-sufficiency rate ,Short- and long-term analyses indicate a stable and robust relationship, with short-term deviations corrected rapidly, reflecting a resilient adjustment mechanism in the wheat sector. Despite progress in domestic production, Algeria remains heavily reliant on imports, particularly soft wheat, highlighting structural vulnerabilities such as climate risks, limited irrigation, and slow agricultural modernization. This study contributes by providing updated empirical evidence on the dynamics between wheat production, consumption, and self-sufficiency in Algeria using the most recent data up to 2024, offering insights for policy design to enhance national food security
Keywords
Food security ; Wheat production ; Self-sufficiency ; ARDL model; ; Agricultural policy
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