المعيار
Volume 30, Numéro 3, Pages 98-110
2026-06-11
From Demographic Pressure To Dividend: A Regime-switching Analysis Of Algeria's Economic Growth, 1962-2022
Authors : Belaidi Mohamed Amine .
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relationship between demographic transition and economic growth in Algeria over the period 1962–2022. Using the Bai-Perron test, three demographic regimes are identified: high pressure, accelerated transition, and the dividend window. A regression model with interaction terms reveals strong heterogeneity in growth determinants across these phases. Investment, initially insignificant, becomes negative during the transition and later turns positive. Human capital, despite an initial positive effect, shows a persistently weak impact over time. Resource rents play a crucial role, particularly during the crisis period. Overall, the demographic dividend is found to be necessary but not sufficient for sustainable economic development.
Keywords
economic growth ; demographic transition demographic dividend ; structural break ; interaction model. ; demographic transition ; demographic dividend ; structural break ; interaction model. ; demographic transition ; demographic dividend ; structural break ; interaction model
Les articles similaires
قرنان كميلية
.
ص 243-255.
Lounnas Soufyane
.
Bouchelaghem Amirouche
.
pages 266-282.
Kedida Amal
.
Boukhetala S
.
pages 730-744.
Messaoudi Temame
.
Djouadi Ilyes
.
pages 60-84.
Kheiri Ammar
.
pages 153-168.
