مجلة إدارة الأعمال والدراسات الاقتصادية
Volume 12, Numéro 1, Pages 215-226
2026-06-02
The Impact Of Oil Price Fluctuations On The Real Exchange Rate An Econometric Study Over The Period 1990-2024 Using The Ardl Model
Authors : Meslem Maissa . Lazazi Imane . Lebni Hocine .
Abstract
This study aims to highlight the impact of oil price fluctuations on the exchange rate using annual data for the period 1990–2024 and applying the ARDL model. The results show an inverse relationship between the two variables for most of the period, except between 2020 and 2024, when a direct relationship emerged. This shift is attributed to the foreign trade policies adopted by the government outside the hydrocarbon sector, efforts to encourage new oil discoveries, control imports, and reduce the depletion of foreign exchange reserves. External factors also played a role, particularly the increase in international hydrocarbon prices due to the Ukraine crisis and the resulting imbalance between global supply and demand.
Keywords
time lag autoregressive model ; hydrocarbons ; exchange rate ; Oil price
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