مجلة المنتدى للدراسات والابحاث الاقتصادية
Volume 10, Numéro 1, Pages 448-465
2026-06-04
The Effect Of The Financial Policy On The Social Development In Algeria: Econometric Study From 1993 To 2024
Authors : Morsli Naziha .
Abstract
This study analyses the effect of the financial policy on the social development in Algeria from 1993 to 2024 by examining the relation between the financial policy as an independent variable, measured by the ratio of oil revenues OR and the final expenditure on government consumption FEGC, and the social development as a dependent variable, measured by the GDP per capita CGDP. In so doing, we use NARDL model that allows for the analysis of the non-linear and asymmetric effects of the financial shocks, either in revenues or expenditures, on the GDP per capita. Findings show an asymmetric nature for the effect of oil revenues, as the increase in revenues positively influences the social development in the long-run while their decrease has no symmetric significant effect. This variance reflects the rent-based nature of the Algerian economy. In addition, the governmental consumption showed no significant effect, neither in the long nor in the short runs, regardless the trend of the shock (positive or negative). Regarding methodology, NARDL model is suitable for analysing the complicated relations in rent-based economies, as it allows for unveiling the asymmetric interactions and the adaptation dynamics of the traditional linear models. Moreover, the stability of the structural model for three decades of shocks fosters the reliability of its results and makes them a good reference for decision makers.,
Keywords
Financial Policy; Oil Revenues; Final Expenditure on Government Consumption; Social Development
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