مجلة دفاتر اقتصادية
Volume 17, Numéro 1, Pages 305-320
2026-06-02
Forecasting The Liquidity In The Bank Of Agriculture And Rural Development – Badr Tlemcen Agency-
Authors : Adda Khayereddine Salim . Sari Hassoun Salaheddine .
Abstract
Liquidity is a fundamental element to ensure a bank’s ability to meet its financial obligations and maintain financial stability. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of Box-Jenkins forecasting method in enhancing bank liquidity in the Bank of Agriculture and Rural Development (BADR) during the January 2022 to December 2025. The Box-Jenkins model was used to predict the level of liquidity and the optimal model is moving average with one lag (MA(1)). The findings reveal that quantitative models offer greater accuracy in prediction compared to traditional approaches, with the Box-Jenkins model proving to be the most suitable for short-term liquidity forecasting. The results of this forecast are an effective tool that helps bank management improve financial planning and estimate the expected demand for liquidity from customers. This contributes to enhancing the quality of service provided and ensuring the bank's readiness to meet financial needs, thus maintaining customer satisfaction and confidence.
Keywords
Liquidity ; Banks ; BADR Tlemcen Agency ; Box-Jenkins forecasting method
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