مجلة اقتصاد المال و الأعمال
Volume 10, Numéro 1, Pages 122-141
2026-03-31
Nonlinear Dynamics Of The Covid-19 Shock On Inflation In Algeria: Evidence From A Nardl Model
Authors : Benhalima Abdelkader Aziz .
Abstract
This study examines the asymmetric impact of the COVID-19 shock on consumer price inflation in Algeria. Monthly data from January 2020 to December 2024 are analyzed within a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) framework.The model allows decomposition of pandemic shocks into positive and negative partial sums. The Pesaran-Shin-Smith bounds test confirms a stable long-run cointegration relationship. Results reveal a significant long-run asymmetry in inflation dynamics. An intensification of the pandemic exerts a strong and statistically significant deflationary effect. Conversely, pandemic de-escalation does not generate a symmetric inflationary response. The exchange rate exhibits a near-complete pass-through to domestic prices. Global food prices display limited transmission, reflecting domestic subsidy mechanisms. Diagnostic, stability, and Wald tests confirm model robustness and validate the asymmetric specification
Keywords
COVID-19 ; Asymmetry ; NARDL ; Exchange Rate ; Algeria
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