Journal of social protection research
Volume 7, Numéro 1, Pages 55-77
2026-06-30
Forecasting Healthcare Expenditure For The Establishment Of Universal Health Coverage In Mauritania
Authors : Taleb Kar .
Abstract
Abstract. This article examines the feasibility and conditions for es- tablishing a Universal Health Coverage (UHC) system in Mauritania, drawing on an in-depth socio-economic and demographic analysis and a forecasting model of healthcare expenditure for the period 2024–2030. Using 31 annual observations (1993–2023) from the World Bank, the Box-Jenkins methodology was applied. The ADF test reveals a Trend- Stationary (TS) process, leading to the use of double exponential smooth- ing. Forecasts indicate a continuous rise in healthcare expenditure, from $180.1 M in 2023 to approximately $215.8 M in 2030. These results high- light the urgency of sustainable financing, an extension of existing health insurance mechanisms (CNAM, CNASS), and harmonisation of social policies aligned with Mauritania’s Vision 2030 and the Sustainable De- velopment Goals (SDG 3.8).
Keywords
Universal Health Coverage, Social Security, Box-Jenkins, ARIMA, Expenditure Forecasting, Mauritania, CNASS, CNAM
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