Revue d'économie et de statistique appliquée
Volume 23, Numéro 1, Pages 89-101
2026-06-28

Kaplan–meier Survival Analysis Of Mortality Experience In Tunisian Life Insurance: Updating The Td99 Table For Experience-based Pricing And Reserving



Authors : Ben Nasr Mehrez . Anderson, John .

Abstract

Tunisian life insurers traditionally rely on the regulatory TD99 mortality table, a static life table issued in 1999 and mandated for pricing and reserving of death benefit guarantees. As TD99 predates major demographic and healthcare improvements, its continued use may distort death-risk premiums, prudence margins, and technical reserves relative to contemporary portfolio experience. This study applies Kaplan–Meier survival analysis to 237,417 life insurance contracts (2019–2021) to quantify deviations between observed mortality and the TD99 benchmark. Results show consistent mortality advantages: smoothed observed rates are approximately 17% lower than TD99 across ages 27–70, with widening differences at older ages (age 70: TD99 = 4.23% vs. observed = 3.53%). The Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) = 1.07 with a 95% confidence interval [0.956–1.198] indicates no statistically significant deviation from expected mortality, confirming overall portfolio soundness. Exponential smoothing effectively removes random fluctuations in crude rates, producing monotonic age-mortality curves suitable for death-risk pricing, experience rating, and actuarial modelling. Findings support the development of portfolio-specific experience mortality tables for more accurate and competitive death-benefit pricing, aligned with international frameworks such as Solvency II and IFRS 17. The study recommends that Tunisian regulators authorize insurer-specific experience tables under stringent actuarial validation, assisting the Comité Général des Assurances (CGA) in modernizing mortality assumptions for pricing, reserving, and guarantee management.

Keywords

Kaplan-Meier estimator, survival analysis, mortality tables, Tunisia, IFRS 17

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