Revue d'économie et de statistique appliquée
Volume 23, Numéro 1, Pages 07-23
2026-06-28
The Impact Of Economic Shocks On The Gdp Growth Rate In Algeria During The Period 1980–2024 Using The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ardl) Model
Authors : Belaidi Amel .
Abstract
This study aims to examine the relationship between economic growth and key macroeconomic variables in Algeria, including oil revenues, exchange rates, and inflation, over the period 1980–2024. The research focuses on analyzing the short- and long-run effects of these variables to understand the dynamics shaping economic growth in a resource-dependent economy. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, which allows for estimating both long- and short-run relationships within a single framework, while accounting for the different properties of the time series. Statistical analysis and estimations were conducted using EViews 13, based on comprehensive annual data covering the study period. The results indicate the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship, with oil revenues exhibiting a strong positive impact on economic growth and inflation having a significant negative effect. The exchange rate showed a limited long-term effect, while short-run dynamics revealed varying interactions among the variables. These findings provide an integrated analytical framework to understand how macroeconomic factors influence Algeria’s economic growth and offer valuable insights for economic policy formulation.
Keywords
Economic Growth ; Economic Shocks ; Dynamic ARDL ; Algeria
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