مجلة البشائر الاقتصادية
Volume 12, Numéro 1, Pages 502-519
2026-06-05

Analysis Of The Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate In Algeria (1994-2024): A Beer Approach Using The Ardl Model



Authors : Okbi Lakhdar . Chedad Mohamed .

Abstract

This study investigates Algeria’s Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) using the ARDL modeling framework. The findings indicate that the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) exhibits strong persistence, responding significantly to short-term fluctuations in oil prices, whereas foreign exchange reserves show no immediate impact. Over the long term, the REER gradually converges to its equilibrium level, contributing to macroeconomic stability. The ARDL-BEER approach demonstrates its usefulness in analyzing the key determinants of the exchange rate and supporting policy decisions. Additionally, the examination of misalignment highlights Algeria’s exposure to external shocks, particularly oil price volatility, emphasizing the importance of policy measures aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate under such conditions

Keywords

Behavioral exchange rate (BEER), ARDL model, real effective exchange rate (REER), foreign exchange reserves, oil prices, short-term and long-term adjustments, cointegration, error correction, Algeria, economic policies, macroeconomic stability.

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