مجلة الباحث الاقتصادي - Economics Researcher's Journal -
Volume 12, Numéro 1, Pages 281-297
2025-12-28
The Impact Of The Tnd/usd Exchange Rate And Gdp On Inflation In Tunisia: Ardl Evidence Of A U-shaped Relationship
Authors : Soltani Hassen .
Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between the TND/USD exchange rate, real GDP, and inflation in Tunisia over the period 1984–2023 by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology. The study seeks to provide deeper insights into the complex and nonlinear nature of inflation dynamics in an emerging economy highly exposed to external shocks and structural constraints. Empirical results indicate the presence of a U-shaped relationship, whereby inflation declines with GDP growth and exchange rate appreciation up to a critical threshold but rises once these variables exceed certain levels. Cointegration analysis confirms a stable long-run equilibrium, showing that GDP plays a significant role in shaping inflationary trends, while the exchange rate exhibits strong short-run effects through import-price channels. The estimated error correction model further demonstrates a rapid speed of adjustment toward equilibrium, highlighting the self-correcting mechanism of the Tunisian economy. These findings emphasize the need for policymakers to account for nonlinearities and threshold effects when designing monetary and exchange rate policies aimed at ensuring price stability and fostering sustainable economic growth.
Keywords
Inflation ; Exchange Rate ; GDP ; ARDL ; Nonlinear Relationship ; Tunisia
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