التكامل الاقتصادي

Long-run And Short-run Macroeconomic Determinants Of Real Output In Algeria: A Baseline Ardl Error-correction Analysis, 1990–2024

Auteurs : Blaha Lahcen . Blaha Brahim .

Résumé

This paper examines the long-run and short-run macroeconomic determinants of real output in Algeria over 1990–2024. Using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with an error-correction representation, the study models real GDP per capita as a function of investment, inflation, government expenditure, trade openness, and real Brent oil prices. The bounds test confirms a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. Investment and oil prices are positively and significantly associated with real GDP per capita, consistent with Algeria's reliance on hydrocarbon revenues and the productive role of capital formation. Inflation, government expenditure, and trade openness are instead negatively and significantly associated with real GDP per capita, potentially reflecting persistent price instability, consumption-oriented public spending, and an import-heavy trade structure. The findings suggest the need to strengthen productive investment, contain inflation, redirect public spending toward growth-enhancing outlays, and diversify trade structure, measures that could help reduce Algeria's dependence on hydrocarbon revenues

Mots clés

Real Output ; ARDL bounds testing ; error-correction model ; Macroeconomic Determinants ; Algeria