مجلة افاق علوم الادارة والاقتصاد

Trade Balance And Per Capita Income In Algeria: Evidence From An Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

Auteurs : Zemri Bouazza Elamine .

Résumé

This study examines the relationship between trade balance, inflation, and per capita income in Algeria over the period 1990–2024 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Descriptive evidence shows that trade balance and inflation were considerably more volatile than per capita income. The short-run results show that trade balance exerts a positive and statistically significant contemporaneous effect on per capita income, whereas inflation is not statistically significant in the estimated equation. The bounds test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. However, the positive sign of the error-correction term suggests that the current adjustment process is dynamically unstable.

Mots clés

Trade balance ; Per capita income ; Inflation ; ARDL ; Algeria