مجلة البحوث الاقتصادية المتقدمة

Analyzing Algeria's Economic Performance: Industrial Production Prices, Consumer Price Index, And Export Trends (2011-2023)

Auteurs : Hadjab Aissa . Bouzerba Rachid . Kaddouri Noureddine .

Résumé

This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of price dynamics across three critical dimensions of Algeria's economy during 2011–2023: industrial production prices, consumer price indices, and export prices. Using official data from Algeria's National Office of Statistics (ONS), we document substantial and persistent inflation across all sectors. Consumer prices increased 90% cumulatively, with food prices rising 99.3% and clothing prices increasing 138.8%, demonstrating severe distributional impacts on lower-income households. Industrial production prices increased 51% on average, with mining sector inflation reaching 187.9% and manufacturing experiencing 45.9% inflation, revealing extreme sectoral heterogeneity reflecting commodity dependence. Export prices exhibited extreme volatility, with hydrocarbon prices fluctuating from 100 to 70.5 (2015) to 162.05 (2023), demonstrating structural vulnerability to international commodity markets. These patterns reflect transmission of external shocks through multiple channels: fiscal effects of oil revenue collapse, monetary expansion financing fiscal deficits, and currency depreciation increasing import prices. The analysis emphasizes that conventional monetary policy alone cannot address inflation in commodity-dependent, import-reliant developing economies. Sustainable price stability requires fundamental structural reforms: agricultural development, industrial diversification, reduction of import dependency, and institutional strengthening of monetary policy credibility. Our findings provide empirical evidence base for designing transformative economic reforms essential for achieving sustainable development and poverty reduction in Algeria.

Mots clés

inflation dynamics ; commodity-dependent economies ; Industrial Production Prices ; price transmission mechanisms ; Consumer Price Index ; Export prices