مجلة الدراسات التجارية والاقتصادية المعاصرة

Inflation Dynamic In Western European And North American Countries : Analysis Of The Effect Of Covid Crisis And Russian-ukrainian War.

Auteurs : Kaci Said .

Résumé

This study investigates the determinants of inflation in Western European and North American countries during the period spanning the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War. Employing a GMM dynamic panel econometric framework, we analyze quarterly data from Q1-2020 to Q4-2024 for a sample of nine advanced economies: USA, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, and Spain. The results indicate that short-term interest rates, energy prices, and GDP exert a positive effect on inflation, underscoring the importance of both cost-push and demand-driven channels. In contrast, industrial production and exchange rates display negative and insignificant effects. Importantly, our analysis confirms that while post-crisis inflation dynamics align with established theoretical mechanisms, the relative weight of explanatory variables has shifted, calling for adaptive frameworks in inflation forecasting and policy calibration. These findings suggest that exchange rate stability and production support should complement interest rate policies in efforts to contain inflation and maintain macroeconomic stability.

Mots clés

Inflation ; Covid crisis ; Russian-Ukrainian war ; western European and north American countries ; GMM panel dynamic model