STRATEGIA
Volume 13, Numéro 1, Pages 52-67
2026-06-30

Multiscale Analysis Of Climatic Teleconnections And Rainfall Variability In Northern Algeria (an Advanced Assessment Of Water Resources In The Face Of Climate Change)



Authors : Chettih Mohamed . Taouti M.b. . Benmebarek S. . Djoudi A. . Benarous I. . Taïbaoui F.z. .

Abstract

Northern Algeria is a hotspot of vulnerability to climate change, where the anthropogenic acceleration of aridity directly threatens water security. The non-linear, non-stationary and highly intermittent nature of rainfall limits the effectiveness of conventional statistics in planning water resource management. This review compares the contributions of four families of advanced signal processing algorithms applied to monthly and daily rainfall time series, in order to analyse their multiscale variability and teleconnections. Spectral and multifractal analyses confirm the scale invariance of rainfall and reveal significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Hurst analysis and the continentality effect highlight contrasting patterns: coastal regions exhibit long-term memory, leading to a clustering of extreme events (the Joseph effect), whilst inland areas display anti-persistent and patchy behaviour. In the long term, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) reveals a strong and systematic downward trend in precipitation over the last 60 years. Finally, crosscorrelation analysis and TDIC patterns demonstrate the predominance and robustness of the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) in high-frequency local variability compared with the NAO, whilst remote indices (ENSO, AMO, PDO) dictate decadal modulations. These in-depth mathematical analyses go beyond the theoretical framework to provide essential decision-making tools for water security. They pave the way for a transition from reactive management to predictive governance: seasonal optimisation of dams by anticipating teleconnections, redesigning hydraulic structures to cope with multifractal flash floods, and strategic storage planning during persistent cycles.

Keywords

Multi-scale analysis, rainfall, climate change, water security, Northern Algeria.

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