مجلة دراسات وأبحاث اقتصادية في الطاقات المتجددة
Volume 13, Numéro 1, Pages 491-510
2026-06-10
Determinants Of Inflation In Turkey: Evidence From The Ardl Model (1988–2023)
Authors : Soltani Ahlem Fadila . Taleb Mohamed Elamine Oualid .
Abstract
This study aims to identify the main determinants of inflation in Turkey during the period 1988–2023 and to analyze their short-run and long-run effects. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model using annual data on money supply (M2), GDP, imports, exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The findings reveal that money supply expansion and export growth exert significant inflationary pressures, while GDP growth and imports contribute to reducing inflation. The results also reveal that FDI has no statistically significant effect on inflation. In addition, the study confirms the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables, supported by a rapid adjustment mechanism toward equilibrium after shocks. The scientific contribution of this study lies in providing updated empirical evidence on the structural determinants of inflation in Turkey over a long period marked by major economic transformations and crises, thereby offering useful implications for economic policymaking.
Keywords
Inflation ; Turkey ; ARDL
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