ARIMA Analysis of Nepalese Foreign Labor Employment | ASJP

المجلة الدولية للاداء الاقتصادي
Volume 8, Numéro 2, Pages 15-30
2025-12-20

Arima Analysis Of Nepalese Foreign Labor Employment

Authors : Yadav Mani Upadhyaya . Khom Raj Kharel .

Abstract

This research seeks to evaluate the employment of foreign workers in Nepal today and their contribution to the economy. Using the ARIMA forecasting model, the research foresees patterns of Nepalese foreign labor migration in the future. The findings show the labor migration statistics from 1995 to projections after 2030, showing a trend of continuous increase with a significant rise projected to happen post-2020. In the study, both AR and MR remain unchanged, as desired for successful prediction. The analysis identifies that the expected growth in foreign labor migration will have major consequences for Nepal's society, economy, and policy-making process, which will in turn affect employment trends, remittance inflow, and infrastructure needs.

Keywords

Foreign labor employment ; Nepal economy ; remittances ; ARIMA forecasting ; ARDL model

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