Do Global Factors Drive Sukuk Returns? Evidence from the S&P GCC Sukuk Index

Baghli, Ahmed; Tchouar, Ilhem

مجلة الاقتصاد والبيئة
Volume 8, Numéro 2, Pages 136-154
2025-11-08

Do Global Factors Drive Sukuk Returns? Evidence From The S&p Gcc Sukuk Index

Authors : Baghli Ahmed . Tchouar Ilhem .

Abstract

This study examines the impact of global financial factors on returns of the S&P GCC Sukuk Index over daily data ranging from 2015 to 2025. Using the ARDL approach as a statistical methodology, four determinants: U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), gold futures, U.S. Treasury 10-year yield and S&P 500 were considered in this study. Empirical evidence shows that dollar appreciation negatively affect sukuk returns in the short run, gold serves as only a partially effective hedge, U.S. yields have a slight adverse effect and global equity has a significant dampening impact on sukuk over the long term. The ECM speed (≈ −0.76) implies rapid adjustment toward equilibrium also implies strong GCC Sukuk integration with international markets. The findings underline the need to follow international macro-financial developments when managing sukuk holdings and in formulating policy for market resilience.