Inflation Dynamics In The Mena Region: An Empirical Investigation Of The Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve Using A Bias-corrected Dynamic Panel Estimator (2001–2023)
Auteurs : Belhouchet Mohamed Lamine . Gaboussa Ali .
Résumé
This paper examines inflation dynamics in twelve MENA economies over 2001–2023 using the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve, with exchange-rate depreciation and oil-price growth proxying real marginal cost. After testing for slope heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence and unit roots with a structural break, the model is estimated by the bias-corrected LSDVC estimator, with System GMM, MG and CCEMG as robustness checks and interaction models testing regime heterogeneity. Results show a hybrid process with a larger, though not significantly dominant, backward-looking weight (0.470 versus 0.345), weights summing to significantly less than one (α+β ≈ 0.82), a robust oil-price effect of similar size in exporters and importers, and a modest exchange-rate pass-through that does not differ significantly between pegged and flexible regimes, although persistence is lower under pegs. A 2022–2023 level shift, linked to the Russia–Ukraine commodity shock, is not yet established as permanent; the findings call for credible, expectation-anchoring monetary frameworks.
Mots clés
Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve ; Inflation Persistence ; Dynamic Panel Data ; LSDVC Estimator ; MENA Region ; Exchange Rate Pass-Through
