أبحاث إقتصادية معاصرة

An Econometric Analysis Of The Impact Of Wheat Production On Agricultural Growth In Algeria For The Period (1990–2023)

Auteurs : Ziane Meriem . Gaidi Khemissi .

Résumé

This study examines the impact of wheat production on agricultural growth in Algeria (1990–2023), testing the main hypothesis that wheat production significantly affects agricultural growth (H0), broken into two sub-hypotheses positing that wheat production (H1) and annual rainfall (H2) each exert a significant positive impact on agricultural value added (VAAGR). Using FAO time-series data, a multiple log-log OLS regression is estimated, with VAAGR as dependent variable and wheat production (PROD) and rainfall (RAIN) as explanatory variables, corrected for autocorrelation via Newey-West HAC standard errors. The results confirm H0 and H1: wheat production shows a positive, highly significant elasticity (1.610). H2 is not confirmed, however — rainfall instead shows a significant negative elasticity (−2.347). The model explains 61.9% of the variation in agricultural value added, confirming wheat’s central role while revealing rainfall as a disruptive, rather than supportive, factor.

Mots clés

Wheat Production ; Agricultural Growth ; Agricultural Value ; Multiple Regression ; Algeria