أبحاث إقتصادية معاصرة

The Impact Of The Real Effective Exchange Rate On Algeria's Non-hydrocarbon Exports: Evidence From The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ardl) Model, 1990–2023

Auteurs : Chermat Tahar . Bouzerkoula Abdelhamid .

Résumé

This study examines the impact of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) on non –hydrocarbon exports in Algeria (1990-2023), controlling for crude oil prices and trade openness using the ARDL bounds testing approach. Empirical findings confirm a long-run cointegrating relationship at the 1% significance level. Long-run results reveal a statistically significant negative impact of REER on non-oil exports, a positive effect of oil prices operating via public investment channels, and a strong negative impact of trade openness driven by non-productive consumer imports. In the short run, the Error Correction Term ECT is negative and highly significant, indicating a rapid annual adjustment speed of 99.24% toward equilibrium. The study recommends implementing a flexible exchange rate policy to preserve price competitiveness, rationalizing trade openness, and directing oil windfalls toward building a diversified productive base.

Mots clés

Non-Hydrocarbon Exports, Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), ARDL Model, Trade