مجلة الواحات للبحوث و الدراسات

Determinants Of Fertility In Algeria: An Inferential Analytical Study Using Poisson Regression Model - Mics6 Survey Data

Auteurs : Louiza Labib . Belmerdaci Yamen .

Résumé

This study aims to investigate the impact of socio-economic determinants (Education, Wealth Index, and Place of Residence) on fertility levels in Algeria, based on the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS6) data. A descriptive and analytical approach was employed, focusing on Poisson Regression as an inferential tool to estimate the Incidence Rate Ratios (Exp(B)) for the number of children ever born. The study found that Women’s Educational Level is the most influential variable in shaping reproductive behavior. The results demonstrated the power of higher education to neutralize the effects of material and spatial disparities, leading to a homogenization of reproductive behavior among the university-educated elite towards a "nuclear family" model. Additionally, the results revealed a significant inverse relationship between the wealth index and fertility, while statistical differences between rural and urban areas persisted, reflecting the resilience of certain traditional patterns. The study concludes with a sociological vision confirming that the demographic transition in Algeria is a "value-based" shift driven by cognitive human capital..

Mots clés

Fertility, MICS6 Survey, Poisson Regression, Educational Level, Development.